NIC Report Global Trends 2025...may be for soap box

WASHINGTON: A new US intelligence report predicts that in 2025 global warming

could help Russia's economy, an Eastern or Central European
country could be
overrun by organised crime and the US dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades.

Global Trends 2025 is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.

The report says the warming earth will extend Russia's growing season and ease access to northern oil fields, which will strengthen its economy.

But Russia's potential emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.

Analysts also warn that the same kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as state regimes wither away under security and resource pressure.

The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and suggests that Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.

The report also suggests the world may complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the US dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among other national currencies.